Lately, my daily routine has had me spending a lot of time standing directly in the center of a rather famous, concentric red bullseye. When you’re positioned right at the heart of the retail world, you tend to notice the seasonal shifts before anyone else.
It may only be July, but the traditional late-summer rush has already arrived at our doorsteps. This quick breakdown perfectly captures the vibe of what I’ve been seeing on the floor.
Analysis-US Back-To-School Bargain Hunt Starts Early as Higher Bills Pressure Families
By Juveria Tabassum, US News and World Report
July 6 (Reuters) – American families are diving into back-to-school deals earlier than ever this year, snapping up discounts on backpacks, electronics and other school essentials even as higher food and gas prices leave many feeling stretched.
Amazon.com, Walmart, Target and Best Buy have all rolled out back-to-school promotions earlier than usual, turning what was once a late-summer shopping period into a broader summer sales season. Amazon Prime Day-style events have become an unofficial kickoff to back-to-school shopping, with retailers competing aggressively for budget-conscious consumers.
But the bargain hunting also highlights growing anxiety among households facing higher everyday costs and pricier school supplies.
Parents are increasingly seeking discounts on basics while budgeting for trend-driven products, from customizable pencil cases, erasers and bento lunch boxes to JanSport and North Face Borealis backpacks, Stanley and Owala water bottles and dorm accessories popular on TikTok and Instagram.
“With the kind of higher gas prices and higher food prices, I am definitely more aware of how I am going to spend my money heading toward back-to-school. I tend to be a consumer who chooses wisely versus just shops for a lot of things,” said Julie Kelley, founder of a media consulting company in Vermont with an 11-year-old son.
Families are expected to spend about $922 on average on back-to-school shopping this year, according to PwC, roughly 47% more than in 2025, though part of that increase reflects higher prices linked to the Iran war. The back-to-school shopping season accounts for about 2.3% of total annual U.S. retail sales with about $128.2 billion spent in 2025, according to the NRF.
Children’s preferences, too, are playing a larger role in purchasing decisions, according to Kelly Pedersen, PwC’s global retail leader. About 61% of households plan to let their children add products directly to online shopping carts after discovering them on social media, Pedersen said.
Target said its sales event in June offered customers a chance to buy trending back-to-school products early. Amazon said it had deals in its back-to-school and college categories but declined to offer further insights.
WALMART AND AMAZON OFFER EARLY DEALS
Shoppers were also buying pricier electronics and apparel, where discounts were the strongest during Prime Day promotions in late June, according to Adobe Analytics. These categories have struggled with uneven demand as household budgets shrank.
The shift toward digital shopping continues, and Amazon and Walmart remain at the center of that trend. PwC expects the share of consumers planning in-store back-to-school purchases to fall to about 70% this year from 79% last year.
Together, the two retailers accounted for about 71 cents of every new dollar spent online in 2025, according to Morgan Stanley, as both companies expanded delivery options and product assortments to win shoppers.
Walmart’s four-day deals event last month included small appliances meant for students living in dorms as well as bulk classroom supplies for teachers, the company said. It will also stock back-to-school supplies closer to the start of school from mid-August to early September.
“That’s the time then for retailers to make a value play on the less trendy items,” said Jeffrey Degner, a research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research. “We’re going to see a lower-margin timeframe when it comes to August and September.”
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If you need me over the next few weeks, I’ll be the guy hidden behind a massive fortress of Stanley cups and TikTok-famous bento boxes, weeping quietly into a calculator. Please send help or at least an industrial-sized coffee.
Seriously though, if your kids are currently adding half of Amazon to an online cart because an influencer told them a $50 customizable eraser is a “vibe,” stay strong. Come see me at the bullseye. We can huddle near the $1 notebooks, dodge the stampede of early-bird parents, and mutually lament the fact that “Back-to-School” now apparently begins right after Memorial Day.
(And no, I still don’t know why a water bottle needs its own wardrobe of accessories, but yes, we have them in aisle 4).